By now, most of you have likely seen headlines suggesting the Austin real estate market is “slowing”, “softening”, or “correcting”. As usual, the headlines lack context, and context matters.
Rather than reacting to sound bites, let’s look at the actual data from November and talk about what it truly signals as we move into the new year for the Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos market.
November Market Snapshot (Year-over-Year)
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Median Sales Price: $430,000 (↓ 1.1%)
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Closed Sales: 1,895 (↓ 15.9%)
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Sales Dollar Volume: $1.07 billion (↓ 14.5%)
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Months of Inventory: 6.3 months (↑ 1.5 months)
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New Listings: 2,477 (↓ 3.1%)
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Active Listings: 11,926 (↑ 11.2%)
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Pending Sales: 2,269 (↑ 4.5%)
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Average Days on Market: 79 days (↑ 3 days)
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Average Close-to-List Price: 91.7% (vs. 92.5% last year)
On the surface, some of these numbers may look concerning. In reality, they describe a market that is rebalancing, not breaking.
The Big Picture: Normalization, Not Decline
After several years of historically low inventory, rapid price appreciation, and emotionally driven decision-making, the Austin market is returning to something much more sustainable.
We’re seeing:
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Prices are holding relatively steady
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Inventory levels are rising into a balanced range
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Buyers are becoming more selective
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Sellers adjusting expectations
This is what a functioning market looks like.
Inventory at 6.3 Months: Why This Is Important
Six months of inventory is widely considered a neutral market. At 6.3 months, Austin is now slightly buyer-favored but not dramatically so.
What this actually means:
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Homes no longer sell by default
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Pricing, condition, and presentation matter again
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Buyers have time to evaluate and negotiate
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Sellers must compete on value
This is a far healthier environment than the extreme conditions we saw during peak years.
Why Prices Aren’t Falling Sharply
Despite fewer closed sales and lower overall volume, the median price declined just 1.1% year-over-year. That’s not an accident.
It tells us:
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Sellers who need to sell are pricing realistically
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Sellers who don’t need to sell are choosing not to list
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Demand remains strong at well-priced, livable price points
In short, we are not seeing panic selling in Austin; we’re seeing selective participation.
Pending Sales: The Most Overlooked Indicator
Pending sales are up 4.5% year-over-year, and this is one of the most important data points in the entire report.
Pending sales typically lead to closed sales by 30–60 days. This increase suggests:
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Buyers are re-engaging with the market
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Confidence is improving
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Many buyers are positioning ahead of spring
This is often how momentum begins quietly, before it shows up in headline statistics.
Days on Market and Negotiation Power
With average days on market now at 79 days, buyers have the ability to:
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Perform proper due diligence
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Negotiate repairs and concessions
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Avoid rushed, emotional decisions
Meanwhile, homes closing at 91.7% of list price reinforce a critical point for sellers: accurate pricing from the start matters more than ever. Overpricing still leads to longer market times and larger concessions later.
What Buyers Should Take Away
Buyers entering the market in the coming months are doing so under some of the most balanced conditions Austin has seen in years.
That comes with:
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Increased negotiating leverage
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More seller flexibility
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Fewer bidding wars
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More thoughtful decision-making
For buyers focused on long-term ownership rather than short-term speculation, this is a rational and workable market.
What Sellers Need to Understand
This is no longer a “test the market and see” environment.
Homes that are selling today are:
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Priced based on current data, not past peaks
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Properly prepared and well-presented
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Marketed professionally
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Positioned with a clear strategy
Sellers who align expectations with reality are still achieving strong outcomes.
Final Thoughts
The Austin real estate market is not broken. It is recalibrating back to a healthier, more sustainable equilibrium.
As we move into the new year, success will depend less on trying to time the market perfectly and more on understanding it clearly. Buyers benefit from patience and preparation. Sellers benefit from realism and strategy. And in markets like this, experienced guidance matters more than ever.
If you have questions about how this data applies to your specific neighborhood or situation, we’re always happy to have that conversation.
